Currency Trading

Good morning world! :) It's 4:14 a.m. in my part of the world now. Too early for most people but normal for me. I wish I slept for 2 more hours though! (sigh...) 

Oh well...

Since I couldn't go back to sleep anymore, I started analyzing where the Philippine Peso- US dollar is going. Not your typical morning thingy huh?! lol.. But then again, I am not your typical girl in the block. ha ha

So I have here the PHP-USD chart for the past 12 months.

   

Look at the broken lines I've created.

If you notice, the trend during the last quarter of 2011 is upward. That means the Philippine Peso has depreciated. And the US dollar strengthened. In lay man's term, if you're earning US dollar , you will get more pesos.

But if you are buying the US dollar, in the case of importers, that's bad news because they would have to pay more to buy 1 dollar. Or if you have a dollar loan, that's worse! Can you imagine having an importer with a $1M loan? From P42M pesos to P44M? That sucks huh?

So that's how wallstreet makes their billions. :) By forecasting where the stocks or the currencies are going. These are all paperworks. But the investment is real.

Knowing the trend is important. It will tell you somehow where the currency is going. So you would know whether to buy or sell your dollar.

Technically, the Philippine peso has gained strength when the year opened. And it's continuing to do so. But if it breaks Php42.80 level, the peso will depreciate again to :

    a) Php43.45 - tough level to break but when it does..it can shoot up to    b) Php44.10 .

Good news for our overseas workers. :)

And the Philippine economy in general. Why?

Because when the peso is cheap, worldwide investors or even travellers will choose our country as their business or leisure destination.

Think.. that's exactly the reason why retirees come to the Philippines. Their dollar goes a long way in our country. :)

Right now though, the Philippine Peso is expensive. At Php42.20 per one US dollar, our workers abroad are probably crying. They're losing everytime they send their hard earned money to the Philippines.

Call center owners are probably complaining too. :) Imagine them paying P1,000,000.00 to their employees. At P42.20 = they would have to come up with   $23,696.70. Compared to $22,727.30 at Php44/1 usd. See that's $969.00 additional cost on their part.

So if you are to ask me, I would prefer a cheaper Philippine peso. P45 or more. That means, more investors for our country. And of course, more pesos for those who are earning in US Dollars.

My long term outlook is to buy the US dollar. If you have a dollar account and you don't need the money, just keep it. Let it sleep for awhile. Then exchange it into peso later.

With the news these days, I believe that the peso will fall. Don't worry, a cheaper peso is better for our economy anyway. :)






                                                         Lea C. Walker
                                                  leawalker.blogspot.com
                                                 www.davaoproperties.com